#36 76% of second homes: the paradox of territories that are too successful

Chamonix scores 82/100 on our Attractiveness Model Canvas. An excellent score. But one area falls short: housing, at 50/100. The reason lies in one figure: 76% of properties are second homes, a national record outside of peak season areas. Herein lies the paradox: a destination can be so attractive that it ends up driving out those who make it thrive.

Tourist success comes at a price: empty beds.

Chamonix welcomes 5 million visitors annually, has 12,000 tourist beds, and boasts a Tourism Function Index (TFI) of 441. For comparison, a TFI above 100 already indicates a highly touristic town. The municipality has 8,814 permanent residents and 1,247 businesses, with 85% of its local GDP linked to tourism.

This success has a downside. The median property price has reached €8,420/m² (CEREMA 2023), a Parisian level in an Alpine valley with fewer than 9,000 inhabitants. Three-quarters of the housing stock is occupied for only a few weeks a year.

The concrete result: seasonal workers, healthcare professionals, teachers, and ski lift employees can no longer find accommodation in the area they support. The resort is thriving and emptying out at the same time. And it's far from being the only one in this situation.

Why don't traditional dashboards see it?

Most regional observatories track visitor numbers, overnight stays, and revenue. These indicators all tell the same story: everything is fine. Meanwhile, the housing situation is deteriorating in a blind spot.

This is precisely why the Attractiveness Model Canvas combines two layers of analysis. On one hand, perception, extracted from real-time Google reviews. On the other, objective data, from INSEE, data.gouv.fr , CEREMA, ARCEP, or SNCF.

In Chamonix, the perception is magnificent: Picturesque 92/100, Landscapes 100/100, International 100/100.

The objective data says something else: Housing 50/100, Monetary Value 38/100, Access to Transport 58/100.

A visitor never rates your real estate market. They'll never tell you that your pharmacist can't find an apartment. If you only manage your attractiveness based on customer reviews and foot traffic, you'll never see the social crisis coming. Yet it will arrive, in the form of unfilled jobs, businesses closing during the off-season, and schools losing classes.

Residential attractiveness is not the same as tourist attractiveness

We must stop treating these two issues as one. A region attracts visitors, residents, businesses, and talent, and these four groups do not respond to the same signals. The Territory & Society Canvas exists precisely for this reason: Governance, Housing, Digitalization, Sustainable Mobility, Justice, Well-being, and Territorial Cohesion. Seven dimensions that interest no tourist office, yet determine viability ten years from now.

Chamonix understands this. Its brand vision is clear: to become the world's leading sustainable mountain destination. The word "sustainable" here doesn't just refer to glaciers receding by 4 meters a year. It also refers to a valley's capacity to house its working population.

Many areas experiencing tourism growth are following the same trajectory without realizing it: the Basque coast, southern Brittany, southern Réunion, Haute-Savoie, Alpes-Maritimes. The critical threshold is reached faster than expected, and it becomes very difficult to correct once crossed, because land use is irreversible.

And now ?

The real risk isn't underperforming. It's performing well using the wrong indicators. A region that only measures what flatters it makes decisions blindly.

Three questions to ask at the municipal or community council meeting this fall: What is our rate of second homes, and what has been its trend over the last ten years? How many local jobs remain unfilled due to a lack of housing?

Do our perception score and our objective data tell the same story?

If you don't know the answer, that's already an answer.

Let's talk about it: www.agencealps.com